Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Tre'Quan Smith has been among the leading wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 45.0 yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.
Tre'Quan Smith has been among the most effective receivers in the league, averaging an impressive 9.57 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 137.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.