Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
Tre'Quan Smith has received a colossal 20.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 75th percentile among WRs.
Tre'Quan Smith has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 47.0 yards per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.