Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tre'Quan Smith

NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Tre'Quan Smith's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 65.3% to 68.6%.
Tre'Quan Smith's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, notching 10.47 yards-per-target vs a measly 8.39 rate last season.
Tre'Quan Smith's skills in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, accumulating 5.65 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 2.41 figure last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Tre'Quan Smith has been less involved as a potential target this year (59.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (74.9%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (63.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.6%).
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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