Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tre'Quan Smith

NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-511).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +423 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +292.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tre'Quan Smith to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the goal line this week (15.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Tre'Quan Smith's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 56.0%.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.2%).
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.20 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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