Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+580/-1200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Tre'Quan Smith's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 65.3% to 68.6%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the most passing touchdowns in football to WRs: 1.62 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the 7th-worst CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Tre'Quan Smith's 28.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 37.1.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (63.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.6%).
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.