Trenton Irwin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Trenton Irwin

NFL · Player Props

Trenton Irwin

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:41 PM EST

Analysis

Trenton Irwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
While Trenton Irwin has received 5.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Cincinnati's passing attack in this game at 14.7%.
With an exceptional 81.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Trenton Irwin rates among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
After averaging 31.0 air yards per game last season, Trenton Irwin has fallen off this season, now averaging 16.0 per game.
The Houston Texans pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston's collection of CBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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