Trent Sherfield Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+126/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Trent Sherfield's 17.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield's pass-catching performance gotten better this year, compiling 1.9 yards per game vs just 0.9 last year.
Trent Sherfield has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in an impressive 78.4% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.