Trent Sherfield Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Trent Sherfield

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-119/-111).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
Trent Sherfield's 17.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield's receiving skills have improved this year, notching 2.1 yards per game compared to a mere 0.9 last year.
Trent Sherfield has been among the best possession receivers in football, catching a stellar 83.3% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.8%).

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

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