Trent Sherfield Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.0 (-115/-125).
Key Factors
Favors Over
Trent Sherfield's 18.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield's receiving skills have gotten a boost this season, totaling 2.2 yards per game vs a mere 0.9 last season.
Trent Sherfield has been among the best possession receivers in the league, catching an impressive 82.2% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
Favors Under
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.