Trent Sherfield Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Trent Sherfield

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) to WRs this year (68.7%).
The Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 10th-worst collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Trent Sherfield has been less involved as a potential target this season (25.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (62.4%).
Trent Sherfield has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (13.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).
This year, the stout New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a mere 4.0 YAC.

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