Trent Sherfield Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+125/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Trent Sherfield has run a route on 22.8% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 13th percentile among wide receivers.
Trent Sherfield has posted a mere 11.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 16th percentile among WRs.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.