Trent Sherfield Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Trent Sherfield

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
Trent Sherfield has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (10.0 per game).
Trent Sherfield's 20.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield has put up significantly more receiving yards per game (25.0) this season than he did last season (9.0).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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