Trent Sherfield Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+105/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Trent Sherfield has notched significantly more air yards this year (34.0 per game) than he did last year (10.0 per game).
Trent Sherfield's 20.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 9.0.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Trent Sherfield has been among the weakest wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.21 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 14th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.