Trent Sherfield Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Trent Sherfield

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+425/-949).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -940 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -949.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trent Sherfield has notched significantly more air yards this season (27.0 per game) than he did last season (11.0 per game).
Trent Sherfield's 16.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a terrific 76.5% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68%) vs. wideouts this year (68.0%).
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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