Trent Sherfield Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+359/-709).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +383 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +359.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Trent Sherfield has put up far more air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).
Trent Sherfield's 17.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield has been among the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in a terrific 74.0% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (70.1%) to wideouts this year (70.1%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Trent Sherfield grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.