Trent Sherfield Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Trent Sherfield

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-1100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Trent Sherfield has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (11.0 per game).
Trent Sherfield's 17.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in an impressive 78.4% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (68.7%) vs. wideouts this year (68.7%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Trent Sherfield to be a much smaller piece of his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (9.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Trent Sherfield grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.

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