Trent Sherfield Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Trent Sherfield

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+301/-534).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -519 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -534.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trent Sherfield has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).
Trent Sherfield's 18.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield has been among the best possession receivers in the league, catching an impressive 82.2% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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