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Trent Sherfield

Trent Sherfield Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Trent Sherfield Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+301/-534).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -519 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -534.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Trent Sherfield has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).
  • Trent Sherfield's 18.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 8.8.
  • Trent Sherfield has been among the best possession receivers in the league, catching an impressive 82.2% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
  • The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
  • The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
  • The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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