Tre' McKitty Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Tre' McKitty

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 16, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Tre' McKitty Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Tre' McKitty has run a route on 13.3% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 20th percentile among tight ends.
Tre' McKitty has been among the worst pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a measly 1.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 15th percentile among tight ends.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.