|
|
Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+104/-142).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -142 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +104.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.Travis Kelce has run a route on 87.4% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to TEs.The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.1 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
The model projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Travis Kelce's play as a receiver has diminished this season, compiling a measly 4.8 adjusted catches compared to 6.2 last season.Travis Kelce's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 80.1% to 74.3%.When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco's LB corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
