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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (68.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The model projects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Travis Kelce has run a route on 86.5% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.

In this week's contest, Travis Kelce is forecasted by the model to finish in the 100th percentile among tight ends with 9.1 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 26.4 per game) this year.

Travis Kelce's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 80.1% to 75.1%.

The Eagles pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.6%) vs. TEs this year (71.6%).

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Philadelphia's unit has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

More Travis Kelce Player Props

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