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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to garner 9.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Travis Kelce's 75.2% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a substantial regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 80.1% figure.

This year, the fierce Bills defense has given up a puny 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.

More Travis Kelce Player Props

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