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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 68.3% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 136.5 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.

The Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

The model projects Travis Kelce to accrue 7.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among TEs.

Travis Kelce's 54.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 98th percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8.5 points.

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.

Travis Kelce's 74.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a noteable drop-off in his receiving talent over last season's 80.1% figure.

The Texans pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (66.7%) versus TEs this year (66.7%).

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