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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.

The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to total 8.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Travis Kelce's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 80.1% to 74.4%.

This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has allowed a puny 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

The Texans defensive ends profile as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

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