My Account Log Out

reorder

Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +114 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 148.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.

The projections expect Travis Kelce to notch 9.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.

Travis Kelce's 56.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 50.2.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

Travis Kelce's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 80.1% to 75.9%.

The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.5%) versus TEs this year (71.5%).

More Travis Kelce Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™