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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (66.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 60.6 plays per game.

In this week's contest, Travis Kelce is anticipated by the model to rank in the 97th percentile among TEs with 8.9 targets.

Travis Kelce's 57.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 50.2.

In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.

Travis Kelce's 74.6% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a substantial reduction in his receiving prowess over last year's 80.1% figure.

This year, the fierce Chargers defense has allowed a mere 73.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 10th-best rate in the NFL.

The Chargers linebackers project as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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