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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: most in the league.

The model projects Travis Kelce to earn 8.4 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.

Travis Kelce's 52.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 100th percentile for tight ends.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.

The Ravens safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

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