Travis Kelce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
In this game, Travis Kelce is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 100th percentile among tight ends with 9.8 targets.
Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 24.0% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce comes in as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging a remarkable 6.8 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Buffalo's collection of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 10th-best in the league.

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