Travis Kelce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Travis Kelce has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 24.7% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Travis Kelce grades out as one of the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 7.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
Travis Kelce's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.6% to 82.5%.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
The Packers pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.7%) versus tight ends this year (69.7%).

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