Travis Kelce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Our trusted projections expect Travis Kelce to accrue 9.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Travis Kelce rates in the 100th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 55.2 figure this year.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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