Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 26, 2025 1:22 AM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-100/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Kansas City Chiefs will be forced to start backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Chiefs are a massive 13.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see 133.1 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Chiefs this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

Favors Under

Travis Kelce has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 54.8.
Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, totaling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 mark last year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.1%) versus tight ends this year (70.1%).
The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 10th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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