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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to pass on 64.8% of their chances: the greatest clip on the slate this week.

Right now, the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

Travis Kelce has run a route on 86.5% of his team's passing plays last year, placing him in the 98th percentile among TEs.

The projections expect Travis Kelce to notch 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Travis Kelce has compiled a colossal 57.0 air yards per game last year: 100th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.

Travis Kelce ranks as one of the worst TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while checking in at the 17th percentile.

Last year, the daunting Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded a puny 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the fewest in the league.

Last year, the strong Chargers defense has yielded the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a feeble 6.2 yards.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's collection of safeties has been excellent last year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

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