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Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-114/-114).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -114.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (34.7 per game) since the start of last season.The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to garner 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.Travis Kelce has accrued a colossal 51.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Travis Kelce's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 80.1% to 59.1%.Travis Kelce's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this season, averaging a mere 5.02 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.71 rate last season.This year, the imposing Chargers pass defense has allowed the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a feeble 2.9 YAC.
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