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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 68.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 67.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to garner 9.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Travis Kelce's 51.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a meaningful drop-off in his receiving talent over last season's 68.0 mark.

Travis Kelce's 75.2% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a substantial regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 80.1% figure.

Travis Kelce's 6.6 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 8.7 rate.

Travis Kelce's ability to generate extra yardage has worsened this year, totaling a measly 3.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.75 mark last year.

This year, the formidable Bills defense has allowed a measly 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-fewest in the league.

More Travis Kelce Player Props

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