Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 13, 2024

Updated Nov 30, 2024 2:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 66.1% pass rate.
The Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.4 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week, Travis Kelce is predicted by the projections to land in the 97th percentile among tight ends with 8.1 targets.
In regards to air yards, Travis Kelce ranks in the lofty 99th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing a striking 57.0 per game.

Favors Under

With a 13.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.6 total plays run: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
Travis Kelce's 54.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 68.0 rate.
Travis Kelce's pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a mere 6.80 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.71 figure last season.
Travis Kelce's skills in generating extra yardage have declined this year, notching just 3.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.75 rate last year.

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