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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a massive 61.3 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.

The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.4 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Travis Kelce has accumulated a whopping 60.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have only 124.6 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.

Travis Kelce has notched substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (57.0) this year than he did last year (68.0).

Travis Kelce's 6.8 adjusted yards per target this year represents a noteworthy regression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 8.7 mark.

Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this year, totaling a measly 3.30 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.75 mark last year.

This year, the formidable Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a paltry 6.3 yards.

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