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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 57.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: most in the league.

The model projects Travis Kelce to earn 8.4 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.

Travis Kelce has accumulated a massive 56.0 air yards per game last year: 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Travis Kelce's 52.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 100th percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.

Last year, the stout Baltimore Ravens defense has given up a feeble 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 8th-best in the league.

Last year, the tough Baltimore Ravens pass defense has conceded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a mere 4.5 YAC.

The Ravens safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

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