Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 1:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 82.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 79.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
This week, Travis Kelce is projected by the model to finish in the 100th percentile among tight ends with 10.2 targets.
When it comes to air yards, Travis Kelce ranks in the lofty 98th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a staggering 66.0 per game.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
Travis Kelce has been used less as a potential target this year (68.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.1%).
Travis Kelce's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 74.6% to 65.3%.
Travis Kelce's pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, totaling a mere 6.33 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.08 rate last season.
The Vikings defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 29.0) to TEs this year.

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