Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 71.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 71.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to accumulate 8.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 25.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
When talking about air yards, Travis Kelce ranks in the lofty 98th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a massive 67.0 per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Travis Kelce's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 63.6%.
Travis Kelce's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, averaging a mere 6.12 yards-per-target compared to a 9.08 rate last season.
The New York Jets linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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