Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 73.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 70.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 8.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 25.2% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has accrued a monstrous 66.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Travis Kelce's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 46.9%.
Travis Kelce's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, notching a measly 3.56 yards-per-target vs a 9.08 rate last year.
The Chicago Bears defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.

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