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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ +460 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 68.5% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

The model projects Travis Kelce to notch 10.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.

Travis Kelce ranks in the 100th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 52.8 figure this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

After averaging 67.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has produced significantly fewer this season, currently boasting 56.0 per game.

Travis Kelce has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (73.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Travis Kelce's ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this season, averaging a measly 4.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.46 figure last season.

The 49ers defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 39.0) versus tight ends this year.

This year, the fierce 49ers defense has yielded the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a feeble 6.8 yards.

More Travis Kelce Player Props

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