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Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-750/+440).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ +440.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week.The projections expect Travis Kelce to accrue 9.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.Travis Kelce has been in the 99th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) with an impressive 50.7 figure this year.The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.Travis Kelce's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 74.6% to 79.8%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.8 per game) this year.After averaging 67.0 air yards per game last year, Travis Kelce has produced significantly fewer this year, now pacing 54.0 per game.Travis Kelce's 69.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies a noteworthy decline in his receiving talent over last year's 80.0 figure.The Bills pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.18 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
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