Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 71.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this contest, Travis Kelce is anticipated by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile among tight ends with 9.8 targets.
With a sizeable 24.9% Target% (99th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce has been as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.
Travis Kelce's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 74.6% to 82.5%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
After averaging 67.0 air yards per game last year, Travis Kelce has fallen off this year, now sitting at 60.0 per game.
Travis Kelce has totaled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (71.0) this year than he did last year (80.0).

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