Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 5, 2023 7:01 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 80.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 77.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
Travis Kelce has run a route on 83.1% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 9.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.