Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 76.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 78.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 9.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has compiled many more air yards this year (74.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 49.4.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 27.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. TEs this year (62.7%).
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. TEs this year, giving up 5.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.

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