Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to notch 9.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has put up many more air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 57.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 49.4.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Travis Kelce has posted quite a few more receiving yards per game (88.0) this season than he did last season (59.0).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.