Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (+105/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 72.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 73.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
Travis Kelce has run a route on 85.7% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 8.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.