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Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-135/+105).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 75.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 76.5 @ -135.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.Travis Kelce has run a route on 82.9% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to accumulate 10.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among TEs.Travis Kelce has accrued a monstrous 69.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among TEs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
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