Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (+110/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 78.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 80.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 10.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has posted many more air yards this season (74.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce's 55.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 49.4.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63%) versus TEs this year (63.0%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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