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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.

Travis Kelce has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.1% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among tight ends.

Travis Kelce has posted quite a few more air yards this season (73.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).

Travis Kelce's 56.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 49.4.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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