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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Travis Kelce has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 29.4% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
  • Travis Kelce has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (77.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
  • Travis Kelce's 57.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 49.4.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
  • The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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